Journal of Saturation Studies
type: channel
description: The Journal of Saturation Studies is a peer-reviewed interdisciplinary academic journal dedicated to the exploration of saturation, collapse, and translation phenomena across natural, formal, and social systems. The journal provides a platform for innovative research that investigates how complex systems—social, cultural, computational, physical, and artistic—reach critical thresholds, undergo transformation, or generate new forms of meaning and structure. By integrating perspectives from the social sciences, humanities, mathematics, physics, engineering, computer science, and artificial intelligence, the journal fosters dialogue between formal modeling, experimental research, and interpretive frameworks. Its mission is to advance new theoretical paradigms and methodological approaches that illuminate the dynamics of complexity, irreversibility, systemic thresholds, and emergent phenomena across disciplines. ISSN: 3054-3959 Publisher Mahmoud Manafi Berlin, Germany
language: en
publication name: Journal of Saturation Studies
issn: 3054-3959
items: Belief Investment Lock-In Theory: Understanding Distortion Under Conditions of Saturation
items: Systemic Saturation: Conceptualizing the Core Dimensions of Interconnected Systems Under Pressure
items: Emotional Saturation as a Threshold State in Organizational Contexts: Integrating Resource-Based and Relational Approaches
items: Institutional Saturation: Conceptualizing the Core Dimensions of Organizational and Governance Decline
items: Conceptualizing and Measuring Emotional Saturation: A Qualitative Content Analysis Approach
items: Cognitive Saturation: A Qualitative Exploration within the Theory of Saturation
items: When the Workforce Breaks: Developing a SEA-Based Early Warning Risk Index for Health Systems Saturation and Collapse
items: Digital Saturation Assessment in healthcare systems based on SEA Model
items: Digital Saturation and Health System Collapse: Toward Resilient Design of Information Systems in Complex Care Environments
items: Collapse Structures: An Algebraic Framework for IrreversibleDynamics
items: σ-Entropy Structures and IrreversibilityFrom Algebraic Collapse to Thermodynamic Entropy
items: Performance Measurement in Health Systems: A SEA Model Reinterpretationof System Capacity, Saturation, and Collapse
items: Principal Component Analysis under Saturation and Collapse:Structural Limits in High-Dimensional Settings
items: From Wartime Disruption to Systemic Resilience: Applying the SEA Model and SDGs to Ukraine’s Post-War Recovery Strategy
items: Institutional Changes in Ukraine's Post-War Future: Lessons from Poland and Georgia Through the Lens of Saturation Theory
items: Integrating the Theory of Saturation and Collapse Model into Ukraine's Institutional Economic Analysis and Sustainable Development Strategy
items: Health System Models under Pressure: A Comparative Assessment of Saturation and Collapse Risks through the SEA Framework
items: Saturation and Collapse in Dynamical Systems:Emergent Irreversibility and Threshold Phenomena
items: The SEA Collapse Model in the Hotel Industry
items: An Early Warning Framework for Healthcare System Collapse
items: The Theory of Saturation, Collapse Model, and Rosetta Stone Model: A Unified yet Modular Meta-Framework
items: Digital Saturation: Institutional Inertia and Cultural Transformation in the Age of AI

Belief Investment Lock-In Theory: Understanding Distortion Under Conditions of Saturation
type: item
description: This study investigates why individuals, groups, organizations, and political systems may resist substantial revision and instead resort to distortion, selective interpretation, or narrative preservation under conditions of saturation. Building upon Saturation Theory (Manafi, 2025, 2026), the study argues that deeply reinforced belief systems eventually accumulate forms of symbolic and material investment that make revision increasingly costly and destabilizing. Using qualitative expert interviews across disciplines including psychology, sociology, political science, economics, and philosophy, the study identifies recurring mechanisms linking identity, institutional dependency, social belonging, legitimacy, and structural interests to resistance against change. The findings suggest that belief persistence cannot be adequately explained through isolated theories such as sunk cost fallacy, cognitive dissonance, or identity commitment alone. Instead, the interviews point toward an integrated process in which beliefs become embedded simultaneously in cognition, identity, institutional structures, economic systems, and collective narratives. Based on these findings, the study develops Belief Investment Lock-in Theory (BILI), which proposes that accumulated symbolic investments (e.g., identity, morality, belonging, memory, legitimacy) and material investments (e.g., infrastructure, careers, institutional power, economic dependency, and organizational resources) progressively generate rising exit costs and structural lock-in across multiple levels of analysis. The study further argues that under saturation conditions, distortion and defensive reinterpretation should not always be understood merely as individual moral failure or irrationality, but also as mechanisms of structural self-preservation when the perceived costs of revision exceed tolerable thresholds of disruption. By integrating insights from behavioral economics, cognitive dissonance theory, personality psychol…
subject: Articles
  topic: section
subject: Belief Investment Lock-In Theory (BILI)
  topic: keywords
subject: Theory of Saturation
  topic: keywords
subject: Cognitive Dissonance
  topic: keywords
subject: Sunk Cost Fallacy
  topic: keywords
subject: Identity Commitment
  topic: keywords
subject: Big Five Personality Traits
  topic: keywords
subject: Institutional Inertia
  topic: keywords
subject: Narrative Distortion
  topic: keywords
subject: Symbolic Investment
  topic: keywords
subject: Material Investment
  topic: keywords
creator: Mahmoud Manafi
creator: Roozbeh Hojabri
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Saturation Studies
date: 2026-05-22
publication date: 2026-05-22
starting page: 1
ending page: 10

Systemic Saturation: Conceptualizing the Core Dimensions of Interconnected Systems Under Pressure
type: item
description: The Theory of Saturation (Manafi, 2025, 2026) conceptualizes how systems operating under finite capacities respond to excessive complexity, interdependence, and resource demands. While prior work has examined saturation at emotional, cognitive, and institutional levels, the dynamics of systemic saturation remain insufficiently explored. Addressing this gap, the present study aims to conceptualize the dimensions of systemic saturation as a distinct yet structurally consistent form within the broader saturation framework. Using an exploratory qualitative design, data were collected through semi-structured interviews with seven experts across domains including systems thinking, governance, and organizational complexity. The data were analyzed using qualitative content analysis, allowing patterns to emerge inductively. The findings reveal that systemic saturation unfolds as a progressive, multidimensional process comprising four core dimensions: systemic overload, systemic attenuation, systemic degradation, and systemic breakdown. Systemic overload reflects the accumulation of excessive interdependencies, complexity, and resource pressures; systemic attenuation captures the failure of regulatory mechanisms, including distorted feedback loops and coordination breakdowns; systemic degradation highlights the erosion of resilience and adaptive capacity; and systemic breakdown represents a tipping-point condition characterized by systemic fragility and heightened risk of nonlinear collapse or phase transition. The study contributes to the literature by extending the Theory of Saturation to the macro level of interconnected systems and by integrating insights from complexity and resilience perspectives into a unified conceptual model. By identifying the underlying dimensions and process dynamics of systemic saturation, this research provides a foundation for future empirical measurement and cross-level theoretical integration. Practically, the findings offer a framework for d…
subject: Articles
  topic: section
subject: Systemic Saturation
  topic: keywords
subject: Theory of Saturation
  topic: keywords
subject: complexity
  topic: keywords
subject: interdependence
  topic: keywords
subject: resilience
  topic: keywords
subject: phase transition
  topic: keywords
creator: Monika Ewa Klein
creator: Svitlana Samoylenko
creator: Roozbeh Hojabri
creator: Mahmoud Manafi
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Saturation Studies
date: 2026-05-22
publication date: 2026-05-22
starting page: 86
ending page: 94

Emotional Saturation as a Threshold State in Organizational Contexts: Integrating Resource-Based and Relational Approaches
type: item
description: Contemporary research in organizational behavior has devoted considerable attention to the role of emotions in professional life, particularly through the constructs of emotional intelligence and psychological capital as drivers of employee performance (Manafi, Hojabri & Rostomyan, 2025). Yet existing approaches focus primarily on adaptive resources and pay far less attention to the limits of emotional processing capacity. This article proposes a conceptualization of emotional saturation as a distinct threshold state that arises when an individual’s capacity to process and regulate incoming emotional demands is exceeded. Drawing on qualitative analysis, four interrelated dimensions are identified: affective overload, emotional blunting, cognitive impairment, and regulatory breakdown. A relational and configurational interpretation of this state is proposed, distinguishing it from adjacent constructs such as stress, burnout, and emotional exhaustion. The article contributes to the theory of emotions in organizations by arguing for a shift from resource-based to threshold-based models of emotional functioning.
subject: Articles
  topic: section
subject: Emotional Saturation, Threshold State, Organizational Behavior
  topic: keywords
subject: , Emotional Intelligence, Psychological Capital, Self-Regulation, Burnout, Relational Approach
  topic: keywords
creator: Svitlana Samoylenko
creator: Oleksandra Mazurkevych
creator: Roozbeh Hojabri
creator: Mahmoud Manafi
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Saturation Studies
date: 2026-05-22
publication date: 2026-05-22
starting page: 95
ending page: 104

Institutional Saturation: Conceptualizing the Core Dimensions of Organizational and Governance Decline
type: item
description: The Theory of Saturation (Manafi, 2025, 2026) proposes that systems operate within finite processing and regulatory capacities, beyond which excessive input leads to progressive functional decline. While prior research has explored saturation at the emotional and cognitive levels, the concept of institutional saturation remains underdeveloped and lacks a clear multidimensional structure. Addressing this gap, the present study aims to conceptualize and identify the core dimensions of institutional saturation within organizational and governance contexts. Adopting an exploratory qualitative research design, data were collected through semi-structured interviews with seven experts in organizational studies, public administration, and governance. The data were analyzed using qualitative content analysis, allowing patterns and themes to emerge inductively from expert insights. The findings reveal that institutional saturation is a progressive, multidimensional construct consisting of four core dimensions: institutional overload, institutional attenuation, institutional degradation, and institutional breakdown. Institutional overload reflects the accumulation of policies, mandates, and priorities beyond organizational capacity; institutional attenuation captures the defensive shift toward rigidity and rule reliance; institutional degradation highlights the deterioration of decision-making and coordination functions; and institutional breakdown represents the erosion of legitimacy, accountability, and enforcement capacity. These findings contribute to the literature by extending the Theory of Saturation to the institutional level and providing a structured framework for understanding how governance systems respond to excessive complexity and demand. By identifying the core dimensions and their underlying mechanisms, this study offers a foundation for the development of measurement scales and empirical validation. Furthermore, it provides practical insights for diagnosing a…
subject: Articles
  topic: section
subject: Theory of Saturation
  topic: keywords
subject: Institutional Saturation
  topic: keywords
subject: Institutional Overload
  topic: keywords
subject: Institutional Degradation
  topic: keywords
subject: Governance
  topic: keywords
subject: Organizational Complexity
  topic: keywords
creator: Soheila Shahidi Asl
creator: Oleksandra Mazurkevych
creator: Roozbeh Hojabri
creator: Mahmoud Manafi
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Saturation Studies
date: 2026-05-22
publication date: 2026-05-22
starting page: 64
ending page: 72

Conceptualizing and Measuring Emotional Saturation: A Qualitative Content Analysis Approach
type: item
description: The theory of saturation has recently emerged as a meta-framework for understanding how excessive input across cognitive, social, and emotional domains can lead to diminished functioning. By applying this theoretical lens, researchers are provided with new insights into how individuals process, manage, and respond to increasing levels of stimuli in complex environments. While prior research has examined related phenomena such as cognitive overload and emotional exhaustion, the construct of emotional saturation remains insufficiently explored and lacks a clear conceptual foundation. Addressing this gap, the present study aims to explore and define the dimensions of emotional saturation within organizational contexts. Adopting an exploratory qualitative research design, data were collected through semi-structured interviews with six experts in organizational behavior and psychology. The data were analyzed using content analysis, allowing key themes to emerge inductively from expert insights. The findings reveal that emotional saturation is a multidimensional construct consisting of four core dimensions: Affective Overload, Emotional Attenuation, Cognitive Disruption, and Regulatory Breakdown. Affective Overload captures the accumulation of intense emotional demands; Emotional Attenuation reflects reduced emotional responsiveness; Cognitive Disruption highlights the interference of emotions with cognitive processes; and Regulatory Breakdown represents the failure of emotional self-regulation under excessive strain. These findings contribute to the literature by demonstrating how the application of the theory of saturation can enhance understanding of emotional processes in organizational settings. By identifying the core dimensions of emotional saturation, this study provides a foundational framework for future scale development and empirical validation. Furthermore, it opens new avenues for research in emotional intelligence, organizational behavior, and psychological…
subject: Articles
  topic: section
subject: Theory of Saturation
  topic: keywords
subject: Emotional Saturation
  topic: keywords
subject: Affective Overload
  topic: keywords
subject: Emotional Attenuation
  topic: keywords
subject: Cognitive Disruption and Regulatory Breakdown
  topic: keywords
subject: Emotional Intelligence
  topic: keywords
creator: Soheila Shahidi Asl
creator: Mahmoud Manafi
creator: Roozbeh Hojabri
creator: Svitlana Samoylenko
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Saturation Studies
date: 2026-05-22
publication date: 2026-05-22
starting page: 24
ending page: 33

Cognitive Saturation: A Qualitative Exploration within the Theory of Saturation
type: item
description: The Theory of Saturation proposed by Manafi (2025, 2026) conceptualizes saturation as a condition that emerges when adaptive capacities are continuously exceeded by emotional, cognitive, institutional, or systemic demands. The theory identifies multiple forms of saturation, including emotional saturation, cognitive saturation, institutional saturation, and systemic saturation, as interconnected conditions affecting individuals, organizations, and broader social structures. Building on this framework, the present study explores the dimensions of cognitive saturation through qualitative interviews with experts from interdisciplinary backgrounds. The study examines how prolonged exposure to information density, complexity, uncertainty, and continuous mental demands affects cognitive functioning at both individual and systemic levels. The findings suggest that cognitive saturation develops progressively through four interconnected dimensions: informational overload, cognitive attenuation, cognitive degradation, and executive breakdown. Experts described cognitive saturation as beginning with excessive informational demands, followed by reduced cognitive engagement, deterioration of core cognitive functions, and eventual impairment of executive control processes such as decision-making, prioritization, and self-regulation. The findings further indicate that cognitive saturation extends beyond individual psychology and may also characterize institutions, paradigms, and social systems facing unresolved complexity and adaptive overload. This study contributes to the emerging Theory of Saturation by providing a multidimensional framework for understanding cognitive saturation in contemporary digital and knowledge-intensive societies.
subject: Articles
  topic: section
subject: Theory of Saturation
  topic: keywords
subject: Manafi
  topic: keywords
subject: Cognitive Saturation
  topic: keywords
subject: Dimensions
  topic: keywords
creator: Aline Costa
creator: Monika Klein
creator: Roozbeh Hojabri
creator: Mahmoud Manafi
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Saturation Studies
date: 2026-05-22
publication date: 2026-05-22
starting page: 11
ending page: 23

When the Workforce Breaks: Developing a SEA-Based Early Warning Risk Index for Health Systems Saturation and Collapse
type: item
description: Health systems increasingly operate under sustained workforce pressures that may lead to saturation and eventual collapse. However, existing performance frameworks often fail to capture early warning signals related to workforce dynamics. This study aims to develop a SEA-based Early Warning Risk Index to assess health system vulnerability from a workforce perspective, with a particular focus on burnout and attrition as leading indicators of system degradation. A qualitative approach was employed, integrating qualitative data from semi-structured interviews with 15 health system stakeholders and a targeted synthesis of relevant studies. Interview questions were explicitly designed to elicit early warning signals of workforce-related stress. Thematic analysis identified key domains of workforce degradation, including workload escalation, workforce depletion, burnout, attrition, and adaptation failure. These themes were systematically translated into measurable indicators and mapped onto the SEA framework, encompassing Stability, Efficiency, and Adaptability. The findings demonstrate that workforce-related stressors operate as early warning signals that precede observable system failure. While stability and efficiency are progressively weakened under pressure, the loss of adaptability primarily driven by burnout emerges as a critical tipping point toward system saturation. Based on these insights, a composite risk index was developed, enabling the integration of multiple indicators into a unified 0–100 scale for continuous monitoring and cross-system comparison. Although the model assumes equal weighting across SEA dimensions, the results suggest that adaptability may exert a disproportionately greater influence on system resilience. Future research should refine the weighting structure to improve predictive accuracy. Overall, the proposed framework offers a practical and theory-driven tool for early detection of health system risk, supporting timely intervention befor…
subject: Articles
  topic: section
subject: SEA Model
  topic: keywords
subject: Workforce
  topic: keywords
subject: Healthcare professional
  topic: keywords
subject: health Workforce
  topic: keywords
subject: Health systems
  topic: keywords
subject: Early warning
  topic: keywords
subject: Collapse
  topic: keywords
subject: Saturation
  topic: keywords
subject: Risk assessment
  topic: keywords
creator: Roozbeh Hojabri
creator: Mahmoud Manafi
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Saturation Studies
date: 2026-05-22
publication date: 2026-05-22
starting page: 73
ending page: 85

Digital Saturation Assessment in healthcare systems based on SEA Model
type: item
description: The increasing integration of digital and information systems in healthcare has significantly improved efficiency, coordination, and access to services. However, growing dependency on these systems may also introduce systemic vulnerabilities, leading to conditions conceptualized as digital saturation. While prior research has identified the mechanisms through which digital systems contribute to disruption, there remains a lack of practical tools for assessing this phenomenon at the organizational level. This study aims to develop and validate a structured checklist-based instrument for assessing digital saturation in healthcare organizations, grounded in the Stability–Efficiency–Adaptability (SEA) model. The study adopts a multi-phase design, beginning with the generation of checklist items derived from previously identified disruption factors, including digital dependency, workflow integration, reversibility, infrastructure reliability, cybersecurity, and AI-related limitations. These items are subsequently refined through a Delphi-based consensus process involving experts from clinical, technical, and managerial domains. The resulting checklist is designed to enable systematic and periodic evaluation of digital system vulnerability across healthcare settings. In addition, a scoring framework is proposed to support the quantification of digital saturation levels and facilitate comparison across organizational units. By translating conceptual insights into an operational assessment tool, this study contributes to bridging the gap between digital health research and practice, providing healthcare organizations with a practical mechanism for identifying vulnerabilities, prioritizing interventions, and
subject: Articles
  topic: section
subject: Digital Saturation
  topic: keywords
subject: Information Systems
  topic: keywords
subject: Health System Collapse
  topic: keywords
subject: Digital Health
  topic: keywords
subject: Failure
  topic: keywords
subject: Healthcare Systems
  topic: keywords
subject: SEA Model
  topic: keywords
subject: Artificial Intelligence (AI)
  topic: keywords
creator: Roozbeh Hojabri
creator: Mahmoud Manafi
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Saturation Studies
date: 2026-05-22
publication date: 2026-05-22
starting page: 50
ending page: 63

Digital Saturation and Health System Collapse: Toward Resilient Design of Information Systems in Complex Care Environments
type: item
description: Digital and information systems have become integral to healthcare delivery, enhancing efficiency, coordination, and access to services. However, increasing reliance on these systems may also introduce new forms of systemic vulnerability. This study examines how digital systems contribute to service disruption and explores the concept of digital saturation through the lens of the Stability–Efficiency–Adaptability (SEA) model. A qualitative design was employed, combining a structured review of disruption factors with semi-structured interviews conducted with 13 participants across clinical, technical, and managerial domains. The analysis was guided by key disruption factors, including technical failures, cybersecurity threats, infrastructure dependency, workflow over-integration, loss of reversibility, and AI-related limitations. The findings reveal that healthcare systems are increasingly optimized for efficiency, often at the expense of stability and adaptability. High levels of digital dependency, combined with limited manual fallback capacity, make systems highly sensitive to disruption. Failures such as downtime, connectivity issues, and cyber incidents were found to rapidly affect service continuity and, in some cases, propagate across interconnected systems. Interpreted through the SEA model, these findings suggest that efficiency-driven digital transformation may lead to reduced adaptability and increased fragility, resulting in a condition of digital saturation. The study highlights the need for resilience-oriented design approaches that restore balance among stability, efficiency, and adaptability to ensure reliable healthcare delivery.
subject: Articles
  topic: section
subject: Digital Saturation
  topic: keywords
subject: Information Systems
  topic: keywords
subject: Health System Collapse
  topic: keywords
subject: Digital Health
  topic: keywords
subject: Failure
  topic: keywords
subject: Healthcare Systems
  topic: keywords
subject: SEA Model
  topic: keywords
subject: AI
  topic: keywords
subject: Artificial Intelligence (AI)
  topic: keywords
creator: Roozbeh Hojabri
creator: Mahmoud Manafi
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Saturation Studies
date: 2026-05-22
publication date: 2026-05-22
starting page: 34
ending page: 49

Collapse Structures: An Algebraic Framework for IrreversibleDynamics
type: item
description: This paper introduces collapse structures as a minimal algebraic framework that captures the distinction between reversible and irreversible dynamics through a monotone invariant. In addition, it is tried to define the basic objects, introduce key notions (rigidity, σ-homogeneity, σ-collapse spectrum), prove fundamental results (invariance and sharp threshold theorems), and finally construct the natural category of collapse structures together with compatible morphisms.
subject: Articles
  topic: section
creator: Mahmoud Manafi
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Saturation Studies
date: 2026-03-23
publication date: 2026-03-23
starting page: 24
ending page: 28

σ-Entropy Structures and IrreversibilityFrom Algebraic Collapse to Thermodynamic Entropy
type: item
description: We introduce σ-entropy structures, extending the saturation-collapse framework originally developed by Manafi (2026). Building on the σ-filtered dynamical systems, where admissible endomorphisms non-decrease saturation and irreversibility emerges from endomorphism degeneration beyond a critical threshold, we incorporate additivity for composite systems and a probabilistic structure over measurable distributions p, defining averaged saturation. This extension endows σ with entropy-like properties, yielding rigorous theorems on monotonicity under irreversible pushforwards (Second-Law analog), non-negative entropy production with equality precisely for reversible maps, an σ-H-theorem generalizing Boltzmann’s result, fluctuation inequalities, σ-Boltzmann entropy for macrostates, and a variational principle recovering Gibbs-like distributions. Classical entropies in dynamical systems and thermodynamics arise as special cases (e.g., σ(x) = −log ρ(x) for probability density ρ). The resulting framework derives thermodynamic irreversibility and entropy growth endogenously from algebraic collapse, providing a unified bridge between threshold phenomena in abstract algebra and nonequilibrium physics. Keywords: saturation-collapse, σ-entropy structures, irreversibility, algebraic collapse, entropy production, σ-H-theorem, thermodynamic entropy, endomorphism degeneration, partial algebraic structures, nonequilibrium thermodynamics
subject: Articles
  topic: section
creator: Mahmoud Manafi
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Saturation Studies
date: 2026-03-23
publication date: 2026-03-23
starting page: 29
ending page: 37

Performance Measurement in Health Systems: A SEA Model Reinterpretationof System Capacity, Saturation, and Collapse
type: item
description: Performance measurement has long served as a central mechanism for evaluating health systems, primarily through indicators of efficiency, quality, and access. However, existing frameworks provide limited insight into how health systems approach structural limits, experience saturation, or transition toward collapse. This study aims to reinterpret health system performance measurement by examining its ability to capture system capacity, saturation dynamics, and collapse risk through the Stability–Efficiency–Adaptability (SEA) model. To achieve this, a conceptual–analytical approach was adopted, building on a comparative review of 32 performance evaluation and excellence models. The models were systematically analyzed to identify their coverage of key performance domains and subsequently reclassified within the SEA framework to assess imbalances across stability, efficiency, and adaptability dimensions. The findings indicate that dominant performance models disproportionately emphasize efficiency and process optimization while underrepresenting adaptive capacity and systemic stability. These structural imbalances obscure early warning signals of system saturation, including declining responsiveness, workforce strain, and policy rigidity. From a SEA perspective, such imbalances contribute to cumulative systemic stress, increasing the likelihood of saturation and eventual collapse. This study contributes a novel reinterpretation of performance measurement by linking model-level gaps to system-level dynamics of saturation and collapse, offering a structured analytical lens for identifying hidden vulnerabilities in health systems.
subject: Articles
  topic: section
subject: SEA model
  topic: keywords
subject: Collapse
  topic: keywords
subject: Health System
  topic: keywords
subject: Performance Measurement
  topic: keywords
subject: Excellence Models
  topic: keywords
creator: Mahmoud Manafi
creator: Piotr Gutowski
creator: Roozbeh Hojabri
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Saturation Studies
date: 2026-03-23
publication date: 2026-03-23
starting page: 59
ending page: 72

Principal Component Analysis under Saturation and Collapse:Structural Limits in High-Dimensional Settings
type: item
description: Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a foundational technique for dimensionality reduction, widely applied in biometrics, signal processing, and pattern recognition. Classical PCA assumes global linear coherence, stable eigenstructure, and reversible variancepreserving projections. However, empirical applications frequently exhibit instability, loss of interpretability, and degradation of performance as data dimensionality, variance, or heterogeneity increases. This paper introduces a saturation–collapse framework for PCA, in which variance accumulation and dimensional expansion are modeled through an intrinsic saturation functional. We show that PCA remains structurally valid only within low-saturation regimes, while beyond critical thresholds the admissible projection operators undergo degeneration and lose effective invertibility. Collapse is not imposed heuristically but emerges from eigenvalue clustering, instability of eigenspaces, and breakdown of variance separation. The proposed framework provides a unified theoretical language for irreversibility, threshold effects, and structural degradation in PCA-based systems. It offers a principled explanation for known PCA failure modes in high-dimensional and large-scale datasets, and establishes a foundation for saturation-aware dimensional reduction in dynamical and dataintensive systems.
subject: Articles
  topic: section
subject: Principal Component Analysis (PCA)
  topic: keywords
subject: Saturation
  topic: keywords
subject: Collapse
  topic: keywords
subject: Eigenstructure Degeneration
  topic: keywords
subject: Irreversibility
  topic: keywords
subject: Threshold Phenomena
  topic: keywords
subject: Dimensionality Reduction
  topic: keywords
creator: Mahmoud Manafi
creator: Roozbeh Hojabri
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Saturation Studies
date: 2026-03-23
publication date: 2026-03-23
starting page: 1
ending page: 8

From Wartime Disruption to Systemic Resilience: Applying the SEA Model and SDGs to Ukraine’s Post-War Recovery Strategy
type: item
description: Ukraine’s post-war recovery extends beyond physical rebuilding to encompass institutional renewal, economic restructuring, and societal reintegration amid risks of prolonged fragility. This study integrates the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) with Manafi’s Stability–Efficiency–Adaptability (SEA) framework to analyze how Ukraine can achieve sustainable transformation. The SDGs offer normative developmental priorities, while the SEA model provides a diagnostic lens for balancing three interdependent capacities: stability (institutional coherence and social trust), efficiency (resource optimization and productive systems), and adaptability (innovation, learning, and resilience to future shocks). Drawing on qualitative data from semi-structured interviews with six experts in sustainability, public policy, and international development (conducted June 2025–February 2026), the analysis synthesizes recurring themes into a thematic mapping of the 17 SDGs across the three SEA dimensions. Results indicate that stability-oriented goals (e.g., No Poverty, Peace and Strong Institutions) form the foundation for social cohesion and legitimacy; efficiency-focused goals (e.g., Decent Work, Industry and Infrastructure) ensure resource viability and functional reconstruction; and adaptability-oriented goals (e.g., Quality Education, Climate Action, Partnerships) enable long-term modernization and ecological integration. Findings underscore that effective recovery requires dynamic equilibrium among these dimensions rather than isolated pursuit of individual SDGs. By aligning global development targets with systemic conditions for viability, the combined SDG–SEA approach offers a robust conceptual foundation for policy design, helping Ukraine transition from crisis response to resilient, future-oriented development. This framework holds broader implications for post-conflict societies, suggesting that sustainable reconstruction depends on structural relationships amo…
subject: Articles
  topic: section
subject: SEA Model, SDGs, Ukraine, Stability, Efficiency, Adaptability, Post-war recovery
  topic: keywords
creator: Svitlana Samoylenko
creator: Raheleh Karimpour Omam
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Saturation Studies
date: 2026-03-23
publication date: 2026-03-23
starting page: 47
ending page: 52

Institutional Changes in Ukraine's Post-War Future: Lessons from Poland and Georgia Through the Lens of Saturation Theory
type: item
description: The impending post-war reconstruction in Ukraine represents a critical juncture for institutional renewal, where governance structures, economic rules, and social norms must adapt to support resilient growth, EU integration, and sustainable development amid accumulated systemic exhaustion. Drawing on Manafi's Theory of Saturation (2025), this article frames Ukraine's institutional landscape as saturated—characterized by progressive overload and depletion of adaptive capacity across emotional, cognitive, institutional, and systemic layers—exacerbated by prolonged conflict, infrastructure destruction, and pre-existing reform inconsistencies. The theory's phased progression (Evaluation, Recognition, Decision Junction, and Intermediate States) and emphasis on the choice between denial ("Lie" path) and transformative renewal ("Solution" path) guide the analysis. Comparative insights from Poland's successful EU accession since 2004—marked by deep judicial, anti-corruption, and market reforms leading to economic convergence—and Georgia's stalled candidacy post-2023—due to democratic backsliding and institutional stagnation—highlight divergent outcomes at the Decision Junction. Poland exemplifies effective escape from saturation through comprehensive alignment with EU acquis and polycentric governance, while Georgia illustrates the risks of superficial commitments perpetuating rigidity. Integrating neo-institutional theories (North on rules reducing uncertainty, Ostrom on adaptive commons management, Williamson on transaction cost minimization), the article proposes targeted post-war changes for Ukraine: accelerating judicial independence and anti-corruption mechanisms, deepening decentralization, enhancing transparent public investment, and prioritizing green/digital transitions to rebuild adaptability and avert stagnation. Projections underscore that sustained "Solution"-oriented reforms—aligned with the EU's 2026 ten-point plan and extended Sustainable Development Strate…
subject: Articles
  topic: section
subject: Ukraine post-war reconstruction, Theory of Saturation, institutional change, EU integration, Poland EU accession, Georgia EU candidacy, neo-institutional economics, adaptive renewal
  topic: keywords
creator: Svitlana Samoylenko
creator: Oleksandra Mazurkevich
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Saturation Studies
date: 2026-03-23
publication date: 2026-03-23
starting page: 53
ending page: 58

Integrating the Theory of Saturation and Collapse Model into Ukraine's Institutional Economic Analysis and Sustainable Development Strategy
type: item
description: This paper extends the longitudinal analysis of institutional factors shaping Ukraine's trade and investment landscape from 1996 to 2014, as presented in the foundational work on justifying a sustainable development strategy for Ukraine. By incorporating Manafi's Theory of Saturation (2025, 2026) and the associated Collapse Model (focusing on the Stability-Efficiency-Adaptability [SEA] triad), we reinterpret Ukraine's economic trajectory, including the impacts of Russian aggression post-2014. The Theory of Saturation frames Ukraine's pre-2014 institutional inconsistencies and economic vulnerabilities as a buildup of multi-dimensional overload—emotional, cognitive, institutional, and systemic—leading to stagnation and heightened susceptibility to external shocks. The Collapse Model maps this progression across SEA dimensions, revealing how war accelerated declines in adaptability while exposing inefficiencies. Ukraine's adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and its national strategy (2017–2030) represent a potential "Solution" pathway from saturation, emphasizing renewal through institutional reform, green transitions, and adaptive investments. Drawing on updated data through 2025, we assess implementation challenges amid ongoing conflict and propose interventions to enhance resilience. This integration offers a meta-framework for future-oriented planning, bridging institutional economic theory with saturation dynamics to inform post-aggression recovery.
subject: Articles
  topic: section
subject: Ukraine, Institutional Economic Theory, Theory of Saturation, Collapse Model, SEA Triad, Sustainable Development Strategy, Russian Aggression, Trade and Investment.
  topic: keywords
creator: Svitlana Samoylenko
creator: Oleksandra Mazurkevich
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Saturation Studies
date: 2026-03-23
publication date: 2026-03-23
starting page: 38
ending page: 46

Health System Models under Pressure: A Comparative Assessment of Saturation and Collapse Risks through the SEA Framework
type: item
description: Health systems worldwide are increasingly exposed to cumulative pressures, including demographic transitions, workforce shortages, fiscal constraints, technological expansion, and recurrent public health shocks. Although the concept of health system resilience has received growing attention, the processes through which health systems approach saturation and potential systemic collapse remain insufficiently understood. Traditional classifications of health systems such as Beveridge, Bismarck, national health insurance, and market-oriented models have mainly been evaluated through indicators of efficiency, equity, and quality, with less emphasis on structural vulnerability and the accumulation of systemic stress. This study aims to comparatively assess major health system models from the perspective of saturation dynamics and collapse risk using the Stability–Efficiency–Adaptability (SEA) framework. A conceptual comparative analysis was conducted through an integrative review of literature on health system performance, governance, resilience, and systems thinking. Institutional characteristics of major health system models were examined across the three SEA dimensions: stability, efficiency, and adaptability. The findings suggest that resilience and collapse risk depend less on institutional typology and more on maintaining balance among these three dimensions. Tax-funded systems tend to offer high stability but may face rigidity, social insurance systems show efficiency and adaptability but encounter governance complexity, while market-oriented systems demonstrate innovation but greater financial vulnerability and inequality. Maintaining equilibrium among SEA dimensions is therefore essential for preventing systemic saturation and strengthening health system resilience.
subject: Articles
  topic: section
subject: Health systems
  topic: keywords
subject: system resilience
  topic: keywords
subject: system saturation
  topic: keywords
subject: ; healthcare collapse
  topic: keywords
subject: SEA framework
  topic: keywords
subject: health policy
  topic: keywords
subject: comparative health systems
  topic: keywords
creator: Roozbeh Hojabri
creator: Mahmoud Manafi
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Saturation Studies
date: 2026-03-23
publication date: 2026-03-23
starting page: 9
ending page: 23

Saturation and Collapse in Dynamical Systems:Emergent Irreversibility and Threshold Phenomena
type: item
description: This paper presents a saturation-collapse framework for algebraic structure in which algebraic coherence, reversibility, and composability deteriorate as functions of an intrinsic saturation functional. In contrast to classical algebra, where axioms are assumed to hold universally, the proposed framework permits axioms to remain valid only within specified regimes and to fail in a structured and derivable manner beyond them. Collapse is not imposed as a primitive notion but arises naturally through the degeneration of admissible endomorphisms. The framework establishes a unified formal language for irreversibility, threshold effects, and structural degradation, and is readily applicable to groups, semigroups, and dynamical algebraic systems.
subject: Articles
  topic: section
subject: Saturation
  topic: keywords
subject: Collapse
  topic: keywords
subject: Degeneration
  topic: keywords
subject: Dynamical Systems
  topic: keywords
subject: Irreversibility
  topic: keywords
creator: Mahmoud Manafi
creator: Mohammad Ojaqi
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Saturation Studies
date: 2026-02-07
publication date: 2026-02-07
starting page: 1
ending page: 9

The SEA Collapse Model in the Hotel Industry
type: item
description: This study proposes a Stability–Efficiency–Adaptability (SEA) perspective to identify early signals of organizational collapse in the hotel industry. Rather than conceptualizing collapse as a sudden failure, the paper frames it as a gradual process driven by imbalance between stability, efficiency, and adaptability. Using a qualitative research design, semi-structured interviews were conducted and analyzed through content analysis to uncover the underlying dimensions of each SEA component. The findings reveal that stability, efficiency, and adaptability each consist of four interrelated dimensions, which together provide the basis for developing theoretically grounded key performance indicators (KPIs). These KPIs are used to trace latent collapse signals that may remain invisible in conventional performance metrics. By translating qualitative insights into a structured analytical framework, the study contributes a diagnostic approach for understanding fragility and delayed collapse in hotel organizations.
subject: Articles
  topic: section
subject: Collapse
  topic: keywords
subject: SEA Model
  topic: keywords
subject: Theory of Saturation
  topic: keywords
subject: Hotel
  topic: keywords
subject: Stability
  topic: keywords
subject: Efficiency
  topic: keywords
subject: Adaptability
  topic: keywords
creator: Mahmoud Manafi
creator: Sara Marefatnia
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Saturation Studies
date: 2026-02-07
publication date: 2026-02-07
starting page: 35
ending page: 42

An Early Warning Framework for Healthcare System Collapse
type: item
description: Healthcare systems are increasingly exposed to sustained internal pressures that extend beyond episodic shocks. While resilience has been widely studied, the concept of healthcare system collapse remains weakly theorized and rarely operationalized, particularly in relation to saturation and adaptive capacity loss. This study aims to explore healthcare system collapse as a saturation-driven process using the Stability–Efficiency–Adaptability (SEA) framework and to identify key determinants and early warning key performance indicators (KPIs). A qualitative exploratory design was employed, integrating semi-structured interviews with 12 experts from health policy, academia, and health information systems, alongside a targeted review of international literature. A common interview guide covering seven thematic domains was used for all participants. Data were analyzed thematically and mapped onto the SEA framework to redefine collapse factors and develop SEA-aligned KPIs. Result shows that Seven core determinants of healthcare system collapse were identified. Stability and efficiency related factors were found to create cumulative stress and saturation conditions, while loss of adaptability emerged as an integrative system-level outcome. Based on these findings, a structured set of KPIs was developed across the Stability, Efficiency, and Adaptability dimensions, with adaptability indicators capturing early warning signals of impending collapse. Healthcare system collapse is best understood as a progressive outcome of sustained imbalance within the SEA framework, driven by saturation and culminating in loss of adaptability. The proposed SEA-aligned KPIs provide a theoretically grounded approach for early detection of collapse-prone conditions and support anticipatory health system governance.
subject: Articles
  topic: section
subject: HealthCare system collapse; SEA model; Saturation; System resilience; Key performance indicators; KPI; Qualitative study; Health systems governance
  topic: keywords
creator: Roozbeh Hojabri
creator: Mahmoud Manafi
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Saturation Studies
date: 2026-02-07
publication date: 2026-02-07
starting page: 20
ending page: 34

The Theory of Saturation, Collapse Model, and Rosetta Stone Model: A Unified yet Modular Meta-Framework
type: item
description: Manafi’s Theory of Saturation (2025) introduces a unified meta-framework that integrates classical theories of dysfunction, stagnation, and decline into a single, dynamic lens centered on saturation—the progressive exhaustion of adaptive capacity across structural, cognitive, normative, emotional, and resource dimensions. By revealing saturation as a universal driver of crisis, the theory provides a powerful new template for revising and reframing analyses across the human, social, and applied sciences through a shared diagnostic architecture. From this foundation arise two key extensions: the Collapse Model, a tri-axial framework mapping system trajectories along the dimensions of stability (coherence and endurance), efficiency (resource utilization and goal attainment), and adaptability (capacity for responsive change), which delineates four archetypal states and transitional pathways from optimal performance through stagnation and volatility toward breakdown; and the Rosetta Stone Model, a measurable, translatable lexicon of observable signatures enabling cross-domain comparison, early detection, and intervention. Together, the Theory of Saturation, Collapse Model, and Rosetta Stone Model form a versatile, interdisciplinary toolkit applicable at individual, institutional, societal, and global scales. This article outlines their core concepts and highlights their potential to unify diagnostic insight, forecast progression, and support restorative action wherever complex systems face escalating pressures beyond adaptive limits.
subject: Articles
  topic: section
subject: Theory of Saturation
  topic: keywords
subject: Collapse Model
  topic: keywords
subject: Rosetta Stone Model
  topic: keywords
subject: Meta-framework
  topic: keywords
creator: Mahmoud Manafi
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Saturation Studies
date: 2026-02-07
publication date: 2026-02-07
starting page: 10
ending page: 19

Digital Saturation: Institutional Inertia and Cultural Transformation in the Age of AI
type: item
description: This article explores the multifaceted challenges of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption in artistic and societal contexts, drawing on the Theory of Saturation to analyze barriers and pathways to cultural transformation. Through expert insights, we examine how outdated mindsets, rigid institutional structures, professional burnout, and technical fragilities impede AI integration among artists and sectors like education, healthcare, governance, and business, particularly in rural areas. These challenges manifest through recursive feedback loops and temporal mismatches, where AI’s rapid evolution outpaces human and institutional adaptation, leading to cognitive, institutional, emotional, and structural dysfunction. Resistance to AI’s complexity fosters meta-ignorance, while superficial reforms simulate progress without addressing systemic issues. Yet, inclusive feedback and reflective practices offer pathways to desaturation, recalibrating systems toward empathy, interpretability, and renewal. By proposing ethical feedback integration, institutional reflexivity, temporal literacy, and reflective pauses, this study advocates for adaptive strategies to align AI’s potential with cultural and societal values, bridging urban-rural divides and fostering transformative innovation in the digital age.
subject: Articles
  topic: section
subject: Artificial Intelligence (AI)
  topic: keywords
subject: Theory of Saturation
  topic: keywords
subject: Challenges
  topic: keywords
subject: Cultural Transformation
  topic: keywords
subject: Adoption
  topic: keywords
creator: Mahmoud Manafi
creator: Monika Klein
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Saturation Studies
date: 2026-02-07
publication date: 2026-02-07
starting page: 43
ending page: 54