From Wartime Disruption to Systemic Resilience: Applying the SEA Model and SDGs to Ukraine’s Post-War Recovery Strategy

Abstract

Ukraine’s post-war recovery extends beyond physical rebuilding to encompass institutional renewal, economic restructuring, and societal reintegration amid risks of prolonged fragility. This study integrates the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) with Manafi’s Stability–Efficiency–Adaptability (SEA) framework to analyze how Ukraine can achieve sustainable transformation. The SDGs offer normative developmental priorities, while the SEA model provides a diagnostic lens for balancing three interdependent capacities: stability (institutional coherence and social trust), efficiency (resource optimization and productive systems), and adaptability (innovation, learning, and resilience to future shocks).

Drawing on qualitative data from semi-structured interviews with six experts in sustainability, public policy, and international development (conducted June 2025–February 2026), the analysis synthesizes recurring themes into a thematic mapping of the 17 SDGs across the three SEA dimensions. Results indicate that stability-oriented goals (e.g., No Poverty, Peace and Strong Institutions) form the foundation for social cohesion and legitimacy; efficiency-focused goals (e.g., Decent Work, Industry and Infrastructure) ensure resource viability and functional reconstruction; and adaptability-oriented goals (e.g., Quality Education, Climate Action, Partnerships) enable long-term modernization and ecological integration.

Findings underscore that effective recovery requires dynamic equilibrium among these dimensions rather than isolated pursuit of individual SDGs. By aligning global development targets with systemic conditions for viability, the combined SDG–SEA approach offers a robust conceptual foundation for policy design, helping Ukraine transition from crisis response to resilient, future-oriented development. This framework holds broader implications for post-conflict societies, suggesting that sustainable reconstruction depends on structural relationships among stability, efficiency, and adaptability.