Integrating the Theory of Saturation and Collapse Model into Ukraine's Institutional Economic Analysis and Sustainable Development Strategy

Authors

  • Svitlana Samoylenko Manafi Institute of Saturation Studies Author
  • Oleksandra Mazurkevich Author

Keywords:

Ukraine, Institutional Economic Theory, Theory of Saturation, Collapse Model, SEA Triad, Sustainable Development Strategy, Russian Aggression, Trade and Investment.

Abstract

This paper extends the longitudinal analysis of institutional factors shaping Ukraine's trade and investment landscape from 1996 to 2014, as presented in the foundational work on justifying a sustainable development strategy for Ukraine. By incorporating Manafi's Theory of Saturation (2025, 2026) and the associated Collapse Model (focusing on the Stability-Efficiency-Adaptability [SEA] triad), we reinterpret Ukraine's economic trajectory, including the impacts of Russian aggression post-2014. The Theory of Saturation frames Ukraine's pre-2014 institutional inconsistencies and economic vulnerabilities as a buildup of multi-dimensional overload—emotional, cognitive, institutional, and systemic—leading to stagnation and heightened susceptibility to external shocks. The Collapse Model maps this progression across SEA dimensions, revealing how war accelerated declines in adaptability while exposing inefficiencies. Ukraine's adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and its national strategy (2017–2030) represent a potential "Solution" pathway from saturation, emphasizing renewal through institutional reform, green transitions, and adaptive investments. Drawing on updated data through 2025, we assess implementation challenges amid ongoing conflict and propose interventions to enhance resilience. This integration offers a meta-framework for future-oriented planning, bridging institutional economic theory with saturation dynamics to inform post-aggression recovery.

Author Biography

  • Oleksandra Mazurkevich

    Dr. Oleksandra Mazurkevych is the founder of RTRAS (Relational Theory of the Development of Active Systems) and a researcher at the Manafi Institute for Saturation Studies (MISS). Her work focuses on structural diagnostics of complex active systems — social, organizational, and economic — with a particular emphasis on decision intelligence and institutional configuration analysis. She has applied RTRAS methodology to corporate governance, labor market integration, and municipal management, demonstrating its applicability across diverse institutional contexts. Dr. Mazurkevych holds a PhD in Project Management from Odesa National University of Technology and has authored over 30 academic publications. She is based in Ulm, Germany.

References

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Published

2026-03-23

Issue

Vol. 1 No. 2(Special Edition) (2026): Journal Saturation Studies

Section

Articles