Institutional Changes in Ukraine's Post-War Future: Lessons from Poland and Georgia Through the Lens of Saturation Theory
Keywords:
Ukraine post-war reconstruction, Theory of Saturation, institutional change, EU integration, Poland EU accession, Georgia EU candidacy, neo-institutional economics, adaptive renewalAbstract
The impending post-war reconstruction in Ukraine represents a critical juncture for institutional renewal, where governance structures, economic rules, and social norms must adapt to support resilient growth, EU integration, and sustainable development amid accumulated systemic exhaustion. Drawing on Manafi's Theory of Saturation (2025), this article frames Ukraine's institutional landscape as saturated—characterized by progressive overload and depletion of adaptive capacity across emotional, cognitive, institutional, and systemic layers—exacerbated by prolonged conflict, infrastructure destruction, and pre-existing reform inconsistencies. The theory's phased progression (Evaluation, Recognition, Decision Junction, and Intermediate States) and emphasis on the choice between denial ("Lie" path) and transformative renewal ("Solution" path) guide the analysis.
Comparative insights from Poland's successful EU accession since 2004—marked by deep judicial, anti-corruption, and market reforms leading to economic convergence—and Georgia's stalled candidacy post-2023—due to democratic backsliding and institutional stagnation—highlight divergent outcomes at the Decision Junction. Poland exemplifies effective escape from saturation through comprehensive alignment with EU acquis and polycentric governance, while Georgia illustrates the risks of superficial commitments perpetuating rigidity. Integrating neo-institutional theories (North on rules reducing uncertainty, Ostrom on adaptive commons management, Williamson on transaction cost minimization), the article proposes targeted post-war changes for Ukraine: accelerating judicial independence and anti-corruption mechanisms, deepening decentralization, enhancing transparent public investment, and prioritizing green/digital transitions to rebuild adaptability and avert stagnation.
Projections underscore that sustained "Solution"-oriented reforms—aligned with the EU's 2026 ten-point plan and extended Sustainable Development Strategy—could yield 3–5% annual GDP growth and membership progress by 2030, transforming wartime overload into long-term institutional strength.
